On Monday, October 27, 2025, at 22:45 UTC, the first leg of the MLS Playoffs will ignite one of soccer’s most heated regional feuds when FC Cincinnati hosts Columbus Crew at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. This isn’t just another playoff match—it’s a battle for pride, history, and momentum in a rivalry that’s grown more vicious with every meeting. Cincinnati, fresh off a stunning second-place finish in the Eastern Conference, enters with confidence after winning four of their last five games under head coach Pat Noonan. But the Crew, despite finishing 12th overall, aren’t backing down. They’ve won their last two away games in the regular season, and history says they’ve got the upper hand—eight wins in 18 meetings, to Cincinnati’s four. The twist? This time, Cincinnati has the home-field edge—and the crowd’s roaring.
The Form Divide
Cincinnati’s late-season surge has been the story of the 2025 MLS campaign. After a brutal five-game home losing streak in July, they turned it around completely. Since September 1, they’ve gone unbeaten at TQL Stadium, defeating Nashville SC and CF Montreal while holding Orlando City SC to a draw. Brazilian midfielder Evander became the offensive spark, scoring the decisive goal in the final regular-season match—a 1-0 win over Inter Miami CF that secured second place on tiebreakers. His pace and vision have made him the team’s most dangerous weapon, and with 14 goals this season, he’s the only player on the roster with double-digit scores. Meanwhile, Columbus Crew’s season has been a rollercoaster. They’ve been solid at home but a disaster on the road. In their last three away matches, they conceded six goals—including a 3-1 loss to New York Red Bulls just weeks ago. Their only bright spot? A commanding 3-1 win over the same Red Bulls in their final regular-season game, where forward Lucas Zelarayán delivered a masterclass. But even that win can’t mask the reality: Columbus has the worst away record in the Eastern Conference this season. Their defense, once rock-solid, now looks brittle under pressure.Injuries and Absences
Both teams are nursing key injuries. Cincinnati will be without Lukas Engel, Brad Smith, Luca Orellano, and Matt Miazga—four starters who combined for over 2,000 minutes this season. Their absence leaves gaps in defense and width, forcing Noonan to shuffle his backline and rely more on Evander to create chances alone. Columbus, meanwhile, is missing left-back Mohamed Farsi and forward Wessam Abou Ali, both crucial to their transition play. Without Farsi, their left flank is exposed. Without Abou Ali, their counterattacks lose their edge. This isn’t just a tactical mismatch—it’s a physical one.The Betting Puzzle
Oddsmakers are split, and so are the analysts. Sports Gambler lists Cincinnati at +190, Columbus at +195, and the draw at +148—indicating a near-toss-up. But here’s the odd part: the Over 2.5 goals market is the favorite, despite conflicting predictions. Football Predictions forecasts a 2-0 Cincinnati win with Under 2.5 goals and no goals from both teams. Meanwhile, Sports Mole sees a 2-2 draw, citing the rivalry’s history of high-stakes stalemates. Forebet.com, on the other hand, expects fireworks—Over 2.5 goals, with Cincinnati narrowly edging it 3-2. The data doesn’t lie: in their last five meetings, three ended in draws. And in the last three, the total goals were 2, 4, and 3. The pattern? Tight, tense, and unpredictable.
Home Advantage and the Road Ahead
TQL Stadium, with its 26,000-seat capacity and intimate bowl design, has become a fortress since opening in 2021. The noise level here is legendary—fans wave orange towels, chant in unison, and flood the stands with smoke bombs. It’s not just atmosphere—it’s pressure. Columbus hasn’t won here since 2020. And with their poor away form, that streak looks likely to continue. But don’t count out the Crew. They’ve won three of their last four playoff games on the road. They know how to grind out results when it matters. The second leg, scheduled for November 3 at Lower.com Field in Columbus, will be just as critical. With a 20,139-seat capacity and a canopy roof that muffles sound, it’s the opposite of Cincinnati’s roar. If the tie holds, Columbus will have home advantage in extra time. The winner advances to face either Philadelphia Union or New York City FC in the conference semifinals. The ultimate prize? The MLS Cup final on Saturday, December 6, 2025, at a venue still to be announced.Why This Matters
This isn’t just about advancing. It’s about legacy. FC Cincinnati, a franchise founded in 2015, has never won a playoff series. Columbus Crew, the 2020 MLS Cup champions, are chasing their first title since then. For Cincinnati, this is their chance to prove they’re no longer the underdogs. For Columbus, it’s about silencing doubters and proving their pedigree still matters. The rivalry isn’t just regional—it’s generational. And Monday night? It could define the next chapter.Frequently Asked Questions
How do injuries affect FC Cincinnati’s chances?
Losing four starters—Engel, Smith, Orellano, and Miazga—creates major defensive and width issues. Without Smith and Orellano, Cincinnati’s fullbacks can’t stretch the field, forcing Evander to carry the attack alone. Miazga’s absence leaves a void in aerial duels, which Columbus may exploit with set pieces. Noonan’s options are limited, and the midfield may be overworked, increasing fatigue risks in extra time.
Why is the Over 2.5 goals market favored despite conflicting predictions?
While Football Predictions expects a low-scoring 2-0 win, the betting market reflects historical trends: six of the last eight meetings between these teams saw over 2.5 goals. Cincinnati’s high-pressing style forces errors, and Columbus’s shaky defense often collapses under pressure. Even if one team leads early, the other will push, especially in a playoff atmosphere. The market is betting on chaos, not calm.
What’s the significance of the second leg at Lower.com Field?
Lower.com Field’s enclosed design and smaller capacity create a suffocating environment for visitors. Columbus has won 70% of their home playoff games since 2021. If the first leg ends 1-1 or 2-2, the Crew will have home advantage in extra time. That’s a huge psychological edge—especially since Cincinnati has never won a playoff series on the road. Momentum matters more than stats here.
Has FC Cincinnati ever won a playoff series?
No. Since joining MLS in 2019, Cincinnati has never advanced past the first round. Their 2023 playoff run ended in a 2-1 aggregate loss to Columbus Crew. This year’s team is their best ever—second in the conference, strong form, and a home crowd that’s louder than ever. Winning this series would be their most significant achievement in franchise history.
Who are the key players to watch on Monday?
For Cincinnati, it’s Evander—his pace and finishing are their only consistent threats. Midfielder Lucas Zelarayán (for Columbus) is the X-factor: his set pieces and vision can unlock any defense. Watch for Cincinnati’s 19-year-old striker Maximiliano Urruti, who’s scored three goals in his last four starts as a substitute. He could be the difference if the game opens up.
What’s the historical edge in this rivalry?
Columbus Crew leads the all-time series 8-4-6. But recent history tells a different story: in the last five meetings, Cincinnati has won two, drawn two, and lost just one. The 2025 season saw them draw 2-2 at home and lose 1-0 away—narrow margins. The Crew’s dominance is fading. This isn’t the same rivalry it was in 2020. Cincinnati is catching up, and the crowd knows it.
